Global trade is set to grow in 2027, but that forecast won’t tell you whether your next shipment will arrive on time or what it will cost to land. In its October 2026 outlook, the World Trade Organization projected that world merchandise trade volume would grow 4.1% in 2027, compared with a projected 3.9% in 2026. It forecast 6.4% growth in commercial services trade volume in 2027. Here are four things I’d watch before committing to a price, a supplier or a new market.
Energy prices and shipping routes
The WTO’s October outlook showed how uneven a supply shock can be. In the first half of 2026, Middle East liquefied natural gas exports fell 47%. Increased shipments from other suppliers limited the global decline to about 1%. Trade kept moving, but buyers had to contend with different routes and costs. Ask your supplier how long a freight quote is valid and who pays if the route changes. Check how long an alternative route would add to delivery.
Tariffs, borrowing costs and exchange rates
In its October 2026 outlook for Canada, the Bank of Canada projected that Canadian export growth would slow to about 1¼% in 2027 as U.S. tariffs restrain non-commodity exports. That’s an economy-wide projection. For your own order, check the duty that applies to the product and its country of origin. Then price in the cost of financing inventory while you wait to get paid. If the invoice is in U.S. dollars and your sales are in Canadian dollars, check what happens to your margin when the exchange rate moves.
Where demand is growing
Semiconductors and servers are part of the reason the WTO expects merchandise trade to grow. Its October outlook expects investment in AI infrastructure to remain a major driver through 2027. If you sell into that supply chain, ask customers what they’ve committed to buying and when they’ll need it. If you sell into a different sector, check your own order book and talk to distributors before using a global growth figure to justify carrying more stock.
Food and fertilizer supply
When grain or fertilizer shipments are disrupted, importers can be squeezed by higher freight costs, a weaker currency or both. In its September 2026 food-price update, the Food and Agriculture Organization reported that trade disruptions helped push cereal prices higher. If a single supplier or route carries most of your volume, find out what it would take to switch. An alternative is more useful once you know its lead time and whether it can meet your specifications.
Conclusion
One of my first orders in Bangladesh taught me how much a forecast can miss. My father asked me to handle an order with a supplier who invited me to sit down for tea. I declined because I thought I was respecting his time. The shipment never came. When my father followed up, I learned that the supplier had wanted to get to know the person he was doing business with. I went back and sat down with him. I tell that story in Between Borders, Beyond Boundaries.
Before you commit to your next cross-border order, run the numbers and call the people who will fill it. Ask what might change the price, the route or the delivery date, and what they would do if it did. I’ve learned that those conversations can show you what to look for long before it shows up in a forecast.
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